Air cargo rates may remain high for the next 20 years

The increase in prices in the long term will be facilitated by: the annual growth in demand for the transportation of goods, consolidation in the industry and a decrease in throughput.

Such conclusions were made in their recent reports by the analytical company Transport Intelligence (Ti) and the Boeing corporation, having analyzed the situation in the aviation industry against the backdrop of the pandemic.

For the next twenty years, both companies predicted a high likelihood of structural changes in the air transportation market, a decrease in the carrying capacity of the cargo compartment and high tariffs. Boeing experts also calculated that over the same period of time, the demand for cargo transportation will increase by about 4% annually, and the air fleet by 3.2%.

As an aviation expert, I understand that the use of cargo aircraft to meet the existing demand in the market will continue to grow, which means that the share of air cargo will grow. In the short term, airlines with dedicated cargo aircraft will continue to benefit. Such, for example, as ZetAvia, which carries out charter flights on IL-76 cargo planes to the countries of the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

For passenger air transportation, the forecast remains vague. It is still not clear when they will be able to recover, despite strong demand. Limited capacity, geographically imbalanced demand and high tariffs remain under the influence of Covid-19.

Oleg Sergeev